SOUTH CAPE NEWS - The outbreak of bird flu has already wiped out more than 15% of South Africa's layer hens with the prospect of hefty price increases due to the resultant shortage of table eggs.

According to Dr Charlotte Nkuna, interim CEO of the South African Poultry Association (SAPA), the estimate is that more than 4 million chickens have been or are in the process of being culled. 

"This includes almost 4 million layers, 360 000 broiler breeders and just over 31 000 layer breeders," she said. 

The layer flock stood at about 24 million before the outbreak of the bird flu. She added that more than 23 commercial farms have already been affected.

Agricultural economist, Prof Johan Willemse said the shortage of table eggs could lift prices by 15% to 20%. 

"Furthermore, it can take anything from one to two years for the layer flock to return to levels they were before the bird flu outbreak, which means a prolonged shortage of eggs."

Nkuna said the recovery depends on how quickly the chicken farmers are willing to risk repopulating.

"We anticipate that it will take an average of six months for the farms to be repopulated, some maybe sooner and others preferring to wait a bit longer. This also depends on the available funds to be able to buy the replacement stocks."

According to Nkuna, there are some that are considering importing table eggs. However, the cost of air transport makes it somewhat uneconomical.

"And, if the cheaper option of sea fright is considered, the time it takes to transport by sea will make it very difficult to get the eggs to South Africa within the prescribed shelf life," Willemse said imports are problematic because of eggs being such fragile produce.

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