PROPERTY NEWS - The well-being of our country, districts, cities, towns and suburbs, plus every person living in them, depends on a healthy environment. This is determined by the carrying capacity. 

The environment is a key factor in carrying capacity. However, its health depends on other carrying capacity factors.

"Without first determining and understanding carrying capacity, it's no use speaking enthusiastically about growth and a sustainable future." 

This was the opening sentence in an August 2013 article I wrote, Has SA exceeded its limits? 

This point is relevant in managing growth, not just within a country as a whole, but in each and every district, town and city, and even down to the suburban level.

Recent headlines in George Herald have bellowed the following:

• Rapid urbanisation is inevitable (physical carrying capacity)
• George: A city bursting at the seams (all aspects of carrying capacity)
• George growing: Schools feel the pressure (social and physical carrying capacity)
• Shortage of properties pushing up prices (physical and economic carrying capacities)
• Inkommers skop nes in George (social carrying capacity - attractors)
• George growing: A newcomer's point of view (social aspect drivers…)

The following key points are extracted from these articles:

• A total of 1 082 new municipal accounts were opened in George from July to December 2021.
• George had an average annual growth rate of 4,10% over the five years from 2016 to 2020.
• In 2020, George had a total population of 210 946 people, of which 65,4% speak Afrikaans as home language, 26,9% speak Xhosa and 6,9% speak English.
• The cost of living in George in 2021 was 24% lower than Cape Town and 9% lower than Gqeberha.
• The cost of housing in George was 40% lower than in Cape Town, while the cost of housing in Gqeberha was 18% higher than in George.
• The majority of the population in George was born in the Western Cape (72,89%), while migrators from the Eastern Cape contribute to the second largest proportion (16,62%), followed by the Northern Cape (1,16%) and the Free State (1,59%). (Source- 2016 community survey data)
• Many schools are facing a serious dilemma as classroom space is not being expanded in proportion to the increase in learner numbers. 10 more schools will be required in the next 10 years.
• "Approximately 70% of buyers of are from outside the George area and the majority are from Gauteng," says Lew Geffen's Tim Kirby, "...increase in people moving from the Free State, KwaZulu-Natal and Cape Town area... younger, professional families and corporate employees... now able to work remotely from home... attracted to the area by the quality of life and schooling on offer... influx is creating a severe stock shortage of properties... property prices have increased over the board”.

Can't measure, can't manage

Management guru Peter Drucker said, "If you can’t measure it, you can’t manage it."

This doctrine is also applicable to how a city manages its present and future trajectory. Without fully understanding the capacity of a city or suburb to achieve a certain level of service provision within the constraints of its carrying capacity, it is pointless advocating plans and policies that cannot be achieved. 

Plans and policy need to ensure that carrying capacity overshoot is not aggravated into the future. Not doing this will only make a bad situation worse. It is acknowledged that municipalities see a linkage between growth and increased rates income.

Stats SA presented the mid-2021 population breakdown, which is important information for planning purposes when considering carrying capacity. More than half of the South African population lives in three provinces (Gauteng, KwaZulu-Natal and the Western Cape). From 2016 to 2021, five provinces had net inflows of people. 

The Western Cape attracted 292 521 migrants. These statistics should inform planning - where are people moving to and where are services most needed? This relates to carrying capacity.

Sociopolitical questions

Important sociopolitical questions arise related to migration when deciding on accepting and planning for growth:

• Is it morally right to allow the mass movement of people to an area where the resources are already under demand stress?
• Does inaction by planners, politicians and municipal officials not make them complicit in inevitable hardships that will occur? Obviously this is not applicable where proper planning occurs first.
• Is potential strain and degradation of the environment acceptable?
• Should migration be discouraged unless a benefit occurs or the carrying capacity is first increased to meet the expected demand?

What is carrying capacity?

Carrying capacity considers ecological, physical, economic and social aspects. Ecological issues top the three other aspects of carrying capacity as the well-being of cities living in them depends on a healthy environment. Each is explained as follows:

Ecological: The ability of the environment to support a certain number of people, leaving enough resources for the environment’s own needs. Water, clean air, rainfall and sufficient agricultural resources or production all form part of the ecological carrying capacity. Climate change factors may influence the longer term ecological carrying capacity.

Physical: The space available and the level of infrastructure and engineering in place. For example, a sewage treatment works can only process the waste from a population of y-size. Or, the capacity of a water treatment works, the size of the dam to store and provide water, the ability of roads to accommodate the number of vehicles, pipes to transport fluids (water, sewage, stormwater), etc.

Economic carrying capacity: Depends on the level of sophistication of business and industrial sectors and whether they are capable of employing a certain number of people at an income level that will provide them with a satisfactory living standard. The informal sector is an important component.

Social carrying capacity: Is related to the level of satisfaction and quality of life that a society can achieve under the set circumstances. For example, overcrowding tends towards greater social problems.

Of the above four aspects of carrying capacity, the environment-ecology is the most important. Cultural anthropologist Margaret Mead said: “We won’t have a society if we destroy the environment.” Have society, politicians and municipal managers, heeded her word?

Survival needs healthy environment

The crux of human survival is clean water and food - a healthy environment. But, without proper planning, the perpetual downward spiral created by the net population growth and urbanisation, resulting in overcrowding and competition for scarce resources, leads to poor water, sanitation and living conditions. 

With low unemployment the ability of a society to feed itself in the urban areas is reduced because this society relies on income from work to obtain food. Where inadequate maintenance of municipal infrastructure occurs, the urban physical carrying capacity is reduced.

In March 2021 The Garden Route Growth and Development Strategy was approved and released on the district municipal web site. Its purpose is to "provide a framework for growth and development planning in the Garden Route District for 2019-2039".

This proactive document provides for "an integrated approach to risk management, across towns within the Garden Route". A "water secure future" is identified as number one amongst a number of thematic focus areas. The word "sustainability" is noted eight times in this document.

The word "carrying" is mentioned once and "capacity" 12 times, also in general terms but not in relation to carrying capacity as defined earlier in this article. To refer to "sustainability" in broad terms does not add value to specific needs in a planning or strategy document. It becomes an arbitrary term, as an almost virtuous intention. 

Ald. Booysen noted at the time that, "What makes this strategy different is that it is intended to be a living strategy and a risk-driven strategy". It is noted that "implementation, monitoring and evaluation forms part of our collective ongoing learning and ability to adapt...".

As stated earlier, "If you can’t measure it, you can’t manage it." Thus, it is vital that the GRDM continue to re-evaluate their strategy to ensure that it falls within the carrying capacity limits of the district as a whole, but also individually within the various towns. Having excessive resource, eg water, in one town may not necessary help another town.

Water 

As a groundwater specialist it is the ecological carrying capacity that I am most interested in, specifically water availability, quality and recharge. Desalination of sea water should not be seen as a solution for shortages. It is excessively expensive and requires large energy input. 

Besides which, it should NOT be considered as a magic bullet to a human behaved problem.

Experience over many years with conjunctive municipal water supply has shown that municipalities restrict their opportunities by confining the exploration of possible supplementary groundwater resources to within the municipal boundaries. 

The presence and availability of large aquifers depends on the geology. A case in point is the wellfield the writer developed for Graaff-Reinet in 1988 which is located on the farm Mimosadale about 20km west of the town. This wellfield is still in operation today.

In closing, overpopulation induced by too rapid a migration cuts across all sectors of society with the ultra-rich being the biggest consumers of resources. But it is the poor who feel it most. A society structured within the district’s and individual town’s ecological, economic, social and physical carrying capacity is the only solution. 

Determine the carrying capacity must occur at a detailed level so that appropriate policy and planning can precede unbridled growth. Water is a key resource influencing a region’s carrying capacity and will become even more important as climatic variables occur.

It is imperative that the health of our water catchments are improved and maintained. Conjunctive water supply from a number of sources, including treated effluent, has to be considered.

Without a healthy society we won’t have an environment. And without a healthy environment, we won’t have a decent society. Have you done enough thinking and action for society and the environment?

Ritchie Morris is a keen photographer.

Ritchie Morris is a registered professional natural scientist and has practised as an environmental hydrogeologist for over 35 years. He is a resident of the Garden Route area and received the International Association of Hydrogeologists award for Applied Hydrogeology in 2022.

'We bring you the latest Garden Route, Hessequa, Karoo news'